Risk & returns
How much your wallets move and how far they fall — volatility, biggest fall and recovery, Sharpe and Sortino, how you move against BTC and ETH — and how exposed today's mix is: bad-day and bad-month losses, what-if scenarios, where the risk comes from, how your coins move together, liquidity and exposure.
Risk & returns shows how bumpy your portfolio is and how badly it could fall. Knowing that before a crash is what lets you decide calmly whether you are comfortable with it.
The page has two parts:
- How your wallets behaved — measured on what your wallets actually held each day. It describes your real past
- Your mix today — your current holdings run through past prices. It describes the risk you are carrying right now
Period
1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y or ALL, at the top right.
How your wallets behaved
Money you add or take out is never counted as a rise or a fall: only the movement of your holdings.
The five figures
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Volatility | How much your value swings in a year, with a label — calm under 30%, normal for crypto 30–60%, jumpy 60–100%, wild above — and Bitcoin's figure for comparison |
| Biggest fall | The largest drop from a high to a later low in the period, and how long it took to get back, or that it is still down |
| Below the peak now | How far your value is below the highest point of the period, and for how long; or At a high |
| Return per unit of risk | The Sharpe ratio: return divided by volatility. Above 1 is good for the risk taken; between 0 and 1, low for the risk taken; below 0, losing money |
| Moves vs BTC | Your beta against Bitcoin — how much your portfolio moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves — and how closely you follow it |
The chart
Two views:
- Falls from the peak — how far below its previous high your portfolio was on each day. Zero means a new high. Deep, long red areas are the stretches you would have had to sit through
- 30-day volatility — how bumpy your portfolio was over time, next to ETH and BTC. It shows whether you are taking more or less risk than simply holding either of them
The details
| Row | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Best day and Worst day | Your largest daily gain and loss, with dates |
| Worst week | The 7 days in a row with the biggest loss |
| Worst month | The 30 days in a row with the biggest loss |
| Days in green | The share of days your portfolio rose |
| Sortino ratio | Like the Sharpe ratio, but only falls count as risk. Above 1 is good |
| When BTC rises | On Bitcoin's up days, how much you rose compared with it. 100% means the same |
| When BTC falls | On Bitcoin's down days, how much you fell compared with it. Above 100% means you fell more |
| Moves vs ETH | Your beta and correlation against Ether |
| Return in the period | Your return with deposits and withdrawals removed, and the yearly rate when the period is long enough |
| Longest losing run | The most days in a row with a loss |
| Extreme days | How often very large moves happen compared with a normal market |
The ideal pair is high "When BTC rises" and low "When BTC falls": you take part in the good days and are hurt less on the bad ones. Most crypto portfolios are the opposite — they fall more than Bitcoin and rise about the same.
Your mix today
Your current holdings measured against the price history of the last months: what each past day's price moves would have done to what you hold now. This tells you the risk of today's portfolio, even if you changed it last week.
The five figures
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Expected volatility | How much today's mix would swing in a year |
| A bad day | On 1 day in 20, today's mix loses at least this much (value at risk, 95%) |
| A very bad day | On 1 day in 100, it loses at least this much (value at risk, 99%) |
| Worst days, on average | The average loss on the worst 5% of days |
| A bad month | On 1 stretch of 30 days in 20, it loses at least this much |
These numbers are in dollars on purpose. "A bad day costs you $4,000" is easier to decide on than "volatility is 68%".
What if
Estimated losses for today's mix in specific situations:
- If Bitcoin falls 20%
- If Ethereum falls 20%
- If stablecoins lose 10% of their peg — shown when you hold stablecoins
- If BTC's worst week of the last 5 years happened again
- If BTC's worst month of the last 5 years happened again — with the dates and what Bitcoin did
The replays use what each of your coins actually did in those periods. A coin that did not exist then is estimated from how it moves with Bitcoin.
Where the risk comes from
Each coin's share of your money next to its share of your risk. A coin can be 10% of your money and 30% of your swings, because it moves much more than the rest. Each line also shows the coin's own volatility and how it moves against Bitcoin. Click a coin to open it.
How to use it: if you want less risk, this tells you which coin to trim. It is rarely the largest one.
Good and bad days with this mix
A histogram of how much today's holdings would have gained or lost on each past day. Dark red marks the worst 5% of days. It shows at a glance how often large losses happen, not only how big they are.
How your coins move together
A table of correlations between your coins. 1 means two coins always move together; 0 means no link. Redder cells mean holding both protects you less — owning two coins that always move together is close to owning one.
Liquidity
For each coin, your position compared with what trades in a day, and roughly how long it would take to sell it without moving the price much. A position that is a large share of daily trading can be hard to sell in a hurry, precisely when you might need to.
Exposure
Your money split two ways:
- By market size — Top 10 coins, Top 11–100, Top 101–500, beyond the top 500, coins with no market rank, and stablecoins. Smaller coins move more and can lose most of their value quickly
- By network — how much sits on each blockchain. A problem on one network only reaches what you hold there
Notes about the data
When part of your portfolio cannot be measured — holdings on a network without full history, coins without price history, or unlisted tokens — it is said on the page, either directly or behind a notes about this data button.
Related
The four headline numbers from this page — best day, worst day, how far you are below your peak, and your typical daily swing — also appear in the Risk & returns card of the Overview. How diversified your holdings really are is covered in Diversification.