---
title: Risk & returns
description: How much your wallets move and how far they fall — volatility, biggest fall and recovery, Sharpe and Sortino, how you move against BTC and ETH — and how exposed today's mix is: bad-day and bad-month losses, what-if scenarios, where the risk comes from, how your coins move together, liquidity and exposure.
---

**Risk & returns** shows how bumpy your portfolio is and how badly it could fall. Knowing that before a crash is what lets you decide calmly whether you are comfortable with it.

The page has two parts:

- **How your wallets behaved** — measured on what your wallets actually held each day. It describes your real past
- **Your mix today** — your current holdings run through past prices. It describes the risk you are carrying right now

## Period

**1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y** or **ALL**, at the top right.

## How your wallets behaved

Money you add or take out is never counted as a rise or a fall: only the movement of your holdings.

### The five figures

| Figure | What it tells you |
| --- | --- |
| Volatility | How much your value swings in a year, with a label — **calm** under 30%, **normal for crypto** 30–60%, **jumpy** 60–100%, **wild** above — and Bitcoin's figure for comparison |
| Biggest fall | The largest drop from a high to a later low in the period, and how long it took to get back, or that it is still down |
| Below the peak now | How far your value is below the highest point of the period, and for how long; or **At a high** |
| Return per unit of risk | The Sharpe ratio: return divided by volatility. Above 1 is **good for the risk taken**; between 0 and 1, **low for the risk taken**; below 0, **losing money** |
| Moves vs BTC | Your beta against Bitcoin — how much your portfolio moves for each 1% Bitcoin moves — and how closely you follow it |

### The chart

Two views:

- **Falls from the peak** — how far below its previous high your portfolio was on each day. Zero means a new high. Deep, long red areas are the stretches you would have had to sit through
- **30-day volatility** — how bumpy your portfolio was over time, next to ETH and BTC. It shows whether you are taking more or less risk than simply holding either of them

### The details

| Row | What it tells you |
| --- | --- |
| Best day and Worst day | Your largest daily gain and loss, with dates |
| Worst week | The 7 days in a row with the biggest loss |
| Worst month | The 30 days in a row with the biggest loss |
| Days in green | The share of days your portfolio rose |
| Sortino ratio | Like the Sharpe ratio, but only falls count as risk. Above 1 is good |
| When BTC rises | On Bitcoin's up days, how much you rose compared with it. 100% means the same |
| When BTC falls | On Bitcoin's down days, how much you fell compared with it. Above 100% means you fell more |
| Moves vs ETH | Your beta and correlation against Ether |
| Return in the period | Your return with deposits and withdrawals removed, and the yearly rate when the period is long enough |
| Longest losing run | The most days in a row with a loss |
| Extreme days | How often very large moves happen compared with a normal market |

**The ideal pair is high "When BTC rises" and low "When BTC falls":** you take part in the good days and are hurt less on the bad ones. Most crypto portfolios are the opposite — they fall more than Bitcoin and rise about the same.

## Your mix today

Your current holdings measured against the price history of the last months: what each past day's price moves would have done to what you hold now. This tells you the risk of today's portfolio, even if you changed it last week.

### The five figures

| Figure | What it tells you |
| --- | --- |
| Expected volatility | How much today's mix would swing in a year |
| A bad day | On 1 day in 20, today's mix loses at least this much (value at risk, 95%) |
| A very bad day | On 1 day in 100, it loses at least this much (value at risk, 99%) |
| Worst days, on average | The average loss on the worst 5% of days |
| A bad month | On 1 stretch of 30 days in 20, it loses at least this much |

These numbers are in dollars on purpose. "A bad day costs you $4,000" is easier to decide on than "volatility is 68%".

### What if

Estimated losses for today's mix in specific situations:

- **If Bitcoin falls 20%**
- **If Ethereum falls 20%**
- **If stablecoins lose 10% of their peg** — shown when you hold stablecoins
- **If BTC's worst week of the last 5 years happened again**
- **If BTC's worst month of the last 5 years happened again** — with the dates and what Bitcoin did

The replays use what each of your coins actually did in those periods. A coin that did not exist then is estimated from how it moves with Bitcoin.

### Where the risk comes from

Each coin's share of your money next to its share of your risk. A coin can be 10% of your money and 30% of your swings, because it moves much more than the rest. Each line also shows the coin's own volatility and how it moves against Bitcoin. Click a coin to open it.

**How to use it:** if you want less risk, this tells you which coin to trim. It is rarely the largest one.

### Good and bad days with this mix

A histogram of how much today's holdings would have gained or lost on each past day. Dark red marks the worst 5% of days. It shows at a glance how often large losses happen, not only how big they are.

### How your coins move together

A table of correlations between your coins. 1 means two coins always move together; 0 means no link. Redder cells mean holding both protects you less — owning two coins that always move together is close to owning one.

### Liquidity

For each coin, your position compared with what trades in a day, and roughly how long it would take to sell it without moving the price much. A position that is a large share of daily trading can be hard to sell in a hurry, precisely when you might need to.

### Exposure

Your money split two ways:

- **By market size** — Top 10 coins, Top 11–100, Top 101–500, beyond the top 500, coins with no market rank, and stablecoins. Smaller coins move more and can lose most of their value quickly
- **By network** — how much sits on each blockchain. A problem on one network only reaches what you hold there

## Notes about the data

When part of your portfolio cannot be measured — holdings on a network without full history, coins without price history, or unlisted tokens — it is said on the page, either directly or behind a **notes about this data** button.

## Related

The four headline numbers from this page — best day, worst day, how far you are below your peak, and your typical daily swing — also appear in the **Risk & returns** card of the [Overview](/docs/wallet-overview). How diversified your holdings really are is covered in [Diversification](/docs/wallet-diversification).